The Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Ltd (Caricris) has reaffirmed the credit rating of CariAA (foreign and local currency ratings) on its regional rating scale to the Trinidad and Tobago government, a rating sustained from the last assessment of the government's creditworthiness in October 2023. The scale goes from CariAAA to CariBB.

In a statement on April 25, Caricris said the government's rating, in comparison to other Caribbean nations, is high.

It also maintained a stable outlook on the ratings based on projected macroeconomic stability over the next 12 to 18 months.

"These projections are based on a low but positive real GDP growth rate over the period as well as continued financial sector soundness, robustness in TT’s sovereign wealth fund over the medium term and continued adequacy in international reserves and import cover," it said.

Caricris said the ratings were supported by TT’s large regional economy – energy and non-energy – along with satisfactory financial sector, monetary and exchange-rate conditions.

The statement also identified TT’s strong underlying balance of payments characteristics and adequate international reserves.

Caricris, however, noted the ratings were tempered by TT’s fiscal performance being linked to volatile energy supply and prices, as well as hampered by high expenditure.

Persistent social vulnerabilities worsened by heightened crime levels and continued inadequacies in statistical compilations were also factors noted in the rating.

Caricris also identified factors that could lower TT’s ratings and outlook. Those include an increase in total general government debt to above 100 per cent of GDP over the next 12 months, a sustained deterioration in debt servicing capability to below three times over two consecutive years, a fiscal deficit above ten per cent of GDP sustained over two consecutive years, a fall in import cover to six months or less over the next 12 months and an annual economic contraction of greater than two per cent over the next two years.

Caricris said the rating and outlook could be improved by a decrease in total general government debt to below 65 per cent of GDP over the next 12 months, sustained improvement in debt servicing capability to above seven times over two consecutive years, a fiscal surplus above three per cent of GDP sustained over two consecutive years and a rise in import cover to 12 months or more over the next 24 months.

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