TREVOR SUDAMA
AN assessment of the possible outcome of the 2025 general election should take into account the relevance of the following factors:
1. The first-past-the-post electoral system places emphasis on the winning of constituencies defined by geographic boundaries. It therefore favours parties which can command concentrated and significant support in defined geographical areas.
2. The history of electoral outcomes over the past seven decades indicates that voters have generally favoured two parties from among those competing for the seats available in the House of Representatives.
3. Parties in Trinidad, other than the two electorally dominant ones, have not had a happy experience at the polls and are extremely unlikely to win any seat.
4. A number of emotive responses generally determine voting patterns which can range from racial and kinship sentiment, religious and cultural affiliation, community allegiance and interconnectedness (geography), preservation of class and status quo privileges, and the intensity of discontent with existing representation.
5. Racial and kinship sentiment is a major motivation for many voters which may secure seats but does not determine overall successful electoral outcomes.
6. Those motivated by so-called rational considerations exemplified by meticulous examination of manifestos, platform pledges, political arguments, the assessment of the character, capacity and background of candidates, etc constitute a small minority of the electorate.
7. There is some degree of disenchantment among supporters of both the PNM and the UNC and it is uncertain where the greater degree of disenchantment lies. The response of disenchanted voters is mixed. For some, there will be a great deal of soul-searching but they will continue to vote for the party traditionally supported. A number of them will abstain from voting. Others will transfer their support to another party.
8. If it is a close contest, the independent and non-aligned voters persuaded to exercise their franchise in the marginal constituencies and those who are disenchanted and willing to transfer their support in these constituencies will determine which of the two electorally dominant parties wins a majority of the seats.
9. Elections are basically fought at two levels – the national level and the constituency level. At the national level it is the quality and relevance of the campaign message conveyed and the image of the party that is created which will have an impact. At the constituency level, it is the diligence and effectiveness of canvassing and mobilisation which would matter.
Given the above considerations, it is highly unlikely, as indicated above, that any of the third parties will win any seat. The very few which will be able to command some support may have an impact in the marginal constituencies in a close contest in which victory is likely to be determined by a few hundred votes. However, given the historical solidity of the PNM support base, the votes for third parties are likely to come
