WITH just over one-fifth of businesses expressing optimism about the economic outlook for 2025, confidence in TT’s business environment remains worryingly low.
A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce of TT (AmChamTT) in partnership with Ernst & Young (EY) released on January 31 highlighted several factors contributing to this sentiment, including foreign-exchange challenges, rising inflation, operational constraints and the absence of a clearly defined national development strategy.
The Economic Outlook Survey, which polled senior executives, business unit heads and directors across more than ten industries, aimed to assess perspectives on economic growth, talent strategies, corporate priorities and digitalisation trends.
The findings indicate that 79 per cent of respondents lack confidence in the economy, a continuation of concerns seen in previous years.
One of the most significant concerns raised in the survey was the ongoing foreign-exchange (forex) crisis. The country’s official forex reserves fell from US$6.3 billion in December 2023 to US$5.6 billion by December 2024, exacerbating challenges for businesses reliant on imports and international transactions.
Sixty-three per cent of respondents said their operations depend heavily on forex, with half reporting that obtaining foreign currency had become increasingly difficult over the past year. Forty-five per cent saw no improvement in accessibility.
The limited availability has led companies to seek alternative forex sources, with 66 per cent relying on government agencies such as EximBank, 11 per cent on traditional banks and just five per cent securing forex through export revenue.
Comparatively, these figures show a growing dependence on EximBank, as only 62 per cent reported using it in 2024.
Operational costs and business constraints
Beyond forex constraints, businesses reported grappling with inflationary pressures and tightening profit margins.
Rising costs of goods and services, coupled with limited ability to adjust prices, have created financial strain.
The survey identified three primary economic constraints affecting businesses: increasing inflation, difficulty in raising prices to offset costs and the uncertainty stemming from the lack of a medium-to-long-term national development plan.
The broader economic indicators paint a complex picture; GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025, an improvement from 1.3 per cent in 2023, and the country's credit rating from Moody’s remains at Ba2.
However, oil and gas production figures indicate volatility. Oil production dropped from 56,300 barrels per day in Q1 2023 to 49,900 in Q1 2024, while natural gas output also declined from 2.71 billion cubic feet per day to 2.64 billion. These fluctuations affect government revenues and add to the economic uncertainty facing businesses.
Investment and business expansion outlook
Despite concerns about economic conditions, many businesses are still planning for growth. The survey found that 71 per cent of respondents int
