In unimodal (single peak rainfall-dependent) areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, as well as western Kenya and northeastern Uganda, rainfall forecasts predict above-average June to September seasonal rainfall with an associated risk of floods in river basins.

Fews Net is concerned about crop production prospects in eastern and southeastern Kenya, southern and northwestern Somalia, southwestern Ethiopia, parts of Uganda, and southeastern South Sudan due to the mixed effects of heavy rainfall and floods, the early end of the long rain season, and the destructive invasion by desert locusts.

The network said satellite-derived crop simulation models and key-informants have confirmed that already several areas like western Ethiopia, western Darfur, eastern and southern Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, that are currently experiencing rainfall deficits are consequently exhibiting drier-than-normal vegetation conditions.

Currently, several pastoralist and marginal agricultural livelihood zones that are dependent on the March to May rains in western Uganda, western Rwanda, southern South Sudan, southern Somalia, and Somali region of Ethiopia, are experiencing rainfall deficits of 10-100 mm.

There, the establishment of average June to September seasonal rainfall in the eastern and northern regions are anticipated to maintain a risk of flooding, especially around the Lake Victoria and Nile River basins and flood-prone areas in the Mt Elgon region.